Maharashtra and Goa reported maximum temperatures soaring above 37°C, with climate change making the heatwaves up to 5 times more likely, according to weathermen
This year, summer has come early for India, at least for the western coast. The states of Maharashtra and Goa, in particular, have been exposed to high temperatures and humidity. Both states reported heatwaves towards the end of February, with the temperature soaring above 37°C — unusually high for February.
Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, and a coastal city, issued a heatwave warning for February 25-26, recording a maximum temperature of 38.7°C, which was nearly 6°C above the normal average.
According to the Climate Shift Index (CSI) by US-based weather agency Climate Central, the high temperatures over the three day period, February 25-27, in Goa’s capital, Panaji, were at least 5 times more likely because of climate change. For the same reason, temperatures in Mumbai for the same time frame were at least 3 times more likely.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), hot and humid weather conditions will persist over the next couple of days, even if the heatwave recedes.
Unusually timed heatwaves
In India, the heatwave season is usually between March and June, which can extend to July sometimes. At coastal stations, a heatwave is declared when the maximum temperature is 4.5°C or more above normal, and if the actual maximum temperature is 37°C or more.
Other west coast bordering states like Gujarat and Karnataka also reported hot and sultry weather conditions, with temperatures hovering between 35°C -37°C, just shy of issuing heatwave warnings.
“It would not be wrong if we say that this year, the country has been witnessing one of the most dry winter seasons. In the absence of any weather systems, rains have remained in hiding. An anti-cyclone has been persisting over Madhya Pradesh, which had been pushing warm easterly winds across the West Coast. These inland winds delayed the setting in of sea breeze and prolonged land breeze led to a rise in mercury. Besides this, high humidity levels due to the proximity of the coast increased the discomfort manifold, resulting in heatwave-like conditions,” said Mahesh Palawat, VP- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
Danger to human life
In 2024, the hottest year on record, India witnessed an unprecedented heatwave, facing 536 heatwave days during the summer 2024, according to data from the IMD.
Becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, mortality due to heat waves in India were higher than from other natural hazards, barring tropical cyclones. Mortality due to heat waves has increased by 62.2% between 2000 and 2019, found a report.
In coastal areas in India, the effects of heat can be more intense due to higher wet bulb temperatures. In this case, due to high humidity levels, the sweat from the human body takes longer to evaporate, trapping heat and causing adverse effects like dehydration inside the body. This is what is happening now in Maharashtra and Goa. A wet bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit for human survivability.
According to a study, few places in South Asia are expected to breach this critical threshold level by the end of this century, if the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions continues.
“Anthropogenic climate change is escalating both meteorological and hydrological extremes worldwide, resulting in frequent weather record-breaking events. Currently, warmer-than-usual temperatures are being observed across all continents, indicating a relatively uniform global warming pattern. Unless we limit global warming by rapidly cutting the emission of greenhouse gases, weather records will continue to break frequently,” said Dr Akshay Deoras, Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK.
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